OpenAI will probably generate an astounding $30 billion this year, but that number needs to hit $200 billion four years from now to ensure profitability and survival. And none of the usual four growth vectors suggest this is possible, let alone likely.

They grew 3x in 2024 and then 4x in 2025 to $20b ARR. If they grow 4x again in 2026, they're at $80b.

The "astounding" $30b is an afterthought. They're surely going to hit it. I think they can hit it even if they don't monetize a single free user. But they are already starting to now with ads.

Anyways, let's just ignore revenue for a second.

OpenAI has:

* ~1 billion users

* "Ask ChatGPT" is the same as "google it" for the masses

* Best models according to ARC AGI (it's not very close)

* $40b fresh in the bank from Softbank

* Up to $100b investment from Nvidia

* An IPO that will most likely be the most anticipated ever. I'm betting they will IPO at well over $1 trillion and raise a cool $100b.

* Ability to raise debt

* Ability to raise more VC money if they want

These OpenAI doomer articles are quite tiring. It's easy to get engagement by being negative.